The PS3 is a technically superior machine. Nobody denies this; Nintendo even come right out and say it. It will attract serious gamers who have deep pockets and want a hi definition game experience, and who want truly immersive games that just look fantastic.

But, in spite of its technical inferiority, the Wii will get more market share. Its more fun and will attract more female gamers than the PS3. It will expand the current boundaries of the gaming market to include the older generation and more lady gamers. I’m pretty sure my mum would love one of these things!

In Japan, both will sell well: many households here will just simply buy both of them. They offer completely different game styles – the Wii is a far more physically active gaming experience with most games having some form of motion detection built in to make you swing your arms around, jump about, wave your hands in the air … thats not going to appeal to everyone.

And, generally speaking, the Japanese market dictates the world market when it comes to console games machines, excepting a few cases back in console prehistory.

So, my prediction: the days of Sony’s total dominance of the console market are ending. I don’t see the Wii taking over that dominance, but I do see a situation where both are roughly equal sized in the market – within say, 10% of each other. I see the Wii edging ahead of the PS3, but this will not spell the death of the PlayStation brand. Sony will react by releasing motion sensitive controllers and games, and by refining the manufacturing process to bring the price of the PS3 down towards Wii levels over the coming years. The war will not be lost, but the first few battles will be won by the Wii – and often the first few battles are the deciding ones.

Thats my prediction! Remember it, because I am rarely wrong about these things. I predicted Mac OS X back in 1998! I predicted the Merger between AMD and ATI in 2003.

So, if your question is “Which is the safest console to buy in terms of how long it will last in the market and how many games will be available”, then really either will be fine.

In a few years time, people will ask you what console you have and if you have a Wii they’ll be like “Oh cool! I have one too … have you got the game …”. If you have a PS3, they just nod and say “cool” and change the subject to something else.

The Console Prophet has Spoken.